What are your chances of getting COVID? New CDC map charts breakthrough cases

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Mayo Clinic has an online tool that helps you calculate your likelihood of contracting the virus. It’s based on location, vaccine status, social activities and protective measures such as wearing a mask indoors or outdoors. It’s a rough calculation and you may actually have fun coming up with scenarios. Tap or click here for more.

The CDC tracked the rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths by vaccination status earlier this year and put the results in an interactive graph. How well do vaccines work against COVID-19 infection and death? Read on to find out.

Here’s the backstory

The COVID-19 vaccine reduces your risk of contracting the virus and CDC studies show it reduces severe symptoms if you do contract COVID-19. The vaccine is not 100% effective and vaccinated people can still get COVID-19. These are called breakthrough cases.

The CDC is conducting numerous studies and working with jurisdictions to monitor how well vaccines work in breakthrough cases. The chart at covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status tracks the rate of COVID-19 cases or deaths over a period of time, which is currently April 4 to September 4, 2021.

Some notes on the chart:

  • Fully vaccinated means the person in the study had the novel coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2 RNA or antigen detected on a respiratory specimen at least 14 days after being fully vaccinated. This includes a 2-dose series such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or a single-dose vaccine such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine.
  • Unvaccinated people involved in the study had the novel coronavirus RNA or antigen detected on a respiratory specimen but had not received the vaccine.
  • Partially vaccinated people were left out of the study.
  • Deaths from COVID-19 were reviewed by health department staff using various data sources.
  • The list of 16 participating jurisdictions consists of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York City, Seattle/King County, Utah and Wisconsin.
  • Results will be updated over time.

The results so far

Let’s take a look at the peak point of the chart, August 15. Note that all incidents are per 100,000 people:

  • There were 736.72 infections among unvaccinated people. Meanwhile, people vaccinated with J&J had 171.92 infections, Pfizer-vaccinated people had 135.64 infections and the Moderna-vaccinated had 86.28 infections.
  • The highest number of cases by age group was 807.33 for unvaccinated people aged 30-49. The lowest number was fully vaccinated people aged 12-17 at 71.84.
  • In August, an unvaccinated person had a 6.1 times greater chance of testing positive for COVID-19 and an 11.3 times greater chance of dying from it compared to a fully vaccinated person.

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